Just for fun, lets make a prediction who will win in the presidential race of 2024.
Using the Election Time YouTube channel as a source of info, the following states are predicted to go for Harris.
Solid Blue: Washington, California, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Washington DC, and Hawaii.
Likely Blue: Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Delaware.
Lean Blue: New Mexico, Minnesota, New Hampshire, part of Maine, Virginia, and part of Nebraska.
The following states are predicted to go for Trump.
Solid Red: Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, Alaska, part of Maine, and Tennessee.
Likely Red: Texas, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio
Lean Red: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Tilt Red: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.
Considering the scenario above, the end result would be a Donald Trump victory with a final total of 312 to 226 electoral votes.
What do I think? First, I am not well versed on polling data and often don’t trust their indications of elections however there are those who have accurately been able to predict outcomes based on polls. Second, since I’m clearly rooting for Trump to win, it’s easy for me to accept the prediction above but I’m also inclined to think some of these lean-blue states might go more red than others think. I’m not really a betting person so I won’t put my house on the line but I will make a prediction of my own.
People who are polled are not always honest with the callers and for the longest time people who supported Trump were afraid to admit it. This time around, they are stronger and more determined to make a stand. Due to that, the polls are showing more favorable outcomes towards Trump but there are still people who keep quiet.
It’s hard to fathom people completely blind to the bizarre radical nature of the democrats so I believe more will vote Trump than the polls are indicating. Not necessarily a red wave like Ronald Reagan but there may be some state surprises.
Perhaps New York won’t turn Blue but it will be closer there than predicted. People living in Colorado might surprise the system while New Mexico will think twice about their border. There are many in Oregon that hate the politics of their state so much that they want to branch off and become Idaho so maybe some day it will turn more purple than it is. Other than that, the lean-red states will be more red than initially indicated which will help in future elections.
Donald Trump – 45th and 47th president of the United States
